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Gameweek 3: Past Performance, Future Results

Who knew it was possible to deep throat a Premier League game ball?

Last weekend, West Brom, showing that they are distinguished professionals, spent Saturday getting plowed by the new-look Evertonian attack. Coach got a red card and they let up five goals but took it like champs, they did. Meanwhile Spurs flexed on poor Southampton in a way that surely gave Ralph flashbacks to their 9-0 drubbing last season. The horror, the horror.

Predictably, managers flooded their teams with the likes of James, Son, Dominic, Kane and Richarlison. I’m not saying that’s a mistake, but if you are bringing an Everton or Spurs player in Gameweek 3, understand this: you are already behind. 

My goal each week is a modest one. Just beat then average, preferably with a score of 60 points or higher.

Easier said than done, but mission accomplished this last week thanks to midfield heroics. Harvey Barnes and Sadio Mané recovered well after disappointing season debuts. Last week’s transfer in of James looks prescient in hindsight but it was simple calculus. Alli had to go.

Indeed, while the rest of Spurs attack impressed Bamidele was nowhere to be found. Clearly, bringing him into the team in the first place was a decision under the influence of too much All or Nothing. Toothbrushing: how does it work?

Now I find myself pondering hits to relieve myself of An underperforming Aubameyang or Martial. What do I do?

A wildcard is already long past an option for me this week. When I do play the wildcard, it begins the minute the first game of the week is played. The value of my team isn’t where it would normally be, but I sense my tides are turning.

This requires two smart transfers and ultimately, Martial and Aubameyang must stay. They have more to prove. But as I looked at the squad, two weak links stood out: Josh Onomah and Che Adams.

I’ll spare you the suspense, Onomah out in favor of Daniel Podence. Not only is he already in good form, but the fixtures are in his favor and he looks much like James prior to last week, poised for a big haul.

Meanwhile Onomah looks set for a price drop, and does not look like a Premier League player, and may lose his spot to Decordova-Reid. So we take that punt behind the barn (cottage?) and put it out of its misery.

Anywho, that’s the move my situation required. If I had all the options in the world, here are some other players I would consider.

Forwards

The point of this blog is not to be obvious. You should probably just get either DCL or jump on the Kane bandwagon. I shouldn’t need to tell you this, it’s the smart long-term move although don’t be surprised if their immediate points haul doesn’t match last week’s bounty.

If you aim not to chase but to lead, consider these two options.

RAÚL Jiménez (£8.5)

Martial still owes me points. I sat the motherfucker on the bench for a gameweek and like a bookie coming to collect, I don’t care if we have to break his knees, we’re gonna need to collect.

This is emotional decision making which is exactly what I planned on avoiding this year, but it prevents me from bringing in the player I think may have the biggest haul of the week. So I settle for his gnarly little partner Podrick Payne who, if he could have just got on target, might have pulled off a hat trick against City. Whip it out, boyo.

Big Raúl has already scored two in two, and as I mentioned earlier the Wolves face some lightweights in the next eight weeks. What’s not to like?

Aleksander Mitrović (£6.0)

Exempting a week one guest role, Mitrović will play every minute he’s healthy. Yet many owners are already retreating from him given cut price options or potential budget blockbusters. He’s nailed on, in good form, and next to Wolves, Fulham have the some of the softest fixtures possible. Soft like baby thighs.

If you’re one of the 21 percent of owners who have him, keep him for at least two more weeks. He may be a wildcard recruit for me.

Neal Maupay (£6.5)

Mitrović and Jiménez are both owned by around 20 percent of teams, so this is your punt for Gameweek 4. Don’t bring him in this week, but consider him next week. Brighton has looked capable of scoring regularly, and Maupay has passed the eye test in his first two games.

Tariq Lamptey’s aggressive approach and a run of decent fixtures will keep Maupay on the Watchlist, although he lives in that border of not-budget-enough and potentially unreliable to give me pause. Be braver than me, dear friend.

Midfielders

Podence was not my top midfield target if I’m honest. Again, don’t be shy about bringing in the obvious ones. Sonny and Kevin will not disappoint.

However, if you’re like me and those moves don’t fit your larger strategy at the moment consider these humbuckers.

Raheem Sterling (£11.5)

Ok, obviously all these picks can’t really be called punts. Here’s a guy who has scored 200 points for each of the last three seasons. But given Kevin’s influence and guaranteed starts, Sterling selection is minuscule and screams differential, seeing as he’s only in around 5 percent of teams.

What?

His numbers will ebb and flow a little more drastically than the Belgian’s, but I think the highs will be higher. He’ll be a consideration for the wildcard, but he’s also presumably a good selection now, since Pep may not have the the resources at hand for his normal tinkering. 

Or maybe he doesn’t start when you need him most. Risky in some ways, but almost certainly guaranteed to pay if you play your cards right.

Mateusz Klich (£5.6)

A little more courage with Leeds assets could have made a world of difference in my squad. While many have opted for Harrison, my money is on Heldér Costa’s creative threat and Klich on penalties, which probably makes the Polish Thunder the most attractive asset in attack.

Rodrigo looks half-baked and will clearly need time to adjust. Bodes well for Bamford owners, but Leeds is still a wait-and-watch situation for me. My money is on these value assets being second only to Podence. Let’s see if I eat my words.

My only hope is the points don’t evaporate by the time I get around to pulling him into the team.

Dwight McNeil (£6.0)

Manchester United looked flat against Crystal Palace in the first half. The attack sputtered in general, although Bruno Fernandes showed signs of life. Martial looked invisible and disinterested.

On the opposite side, Zaha looks like he’s trying to audition for any buyer who might even briefly consider him. But he’s fooled me before and I think that bandwagon will crash, so no Zaha for me.

Enter: Dwight McNeil.

When eyeing a player like Dwight “Legs” McNeil, one must focus on his growth over the last few seasons And the changing assets around him. The 2019/2020 proved a breakout one for the 20-year old, but no one will accuse Burnley of being a free-flowing attacking offense any time soon.

McNeil is probably a short term wild-ass guess, but a good one that seems to be supported by a good finisher in Chris Wood, who himself might be considered equal to Maupay in his questionable upside.

Legs has already netted an assist, and with the next best fixtures after Fulham and Leeds, something to consider. Man ain’t a target of bigger clubs for nothing.

Next: Somebody give me drugs and alcohol, this week might be fucked.

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Watchlist

Gameweek 2: Who Watches the Watchlist?

I’m a liar. I’m a big, fat, smelly liar with an ugly face and a big butt and my butt smells and I like to kiss my own butt.

I lied when I said that I would roll my transfer this week. With the Gareth Bale scuttlebutt becoming headline news, the time came to deal with Dele Alli earlier than expected. Sure, I could have done a wait-and-see but I have no patience to find out the impact of this and I planned on moving him anyway.

Who came in? Who might come in next? Who shines as a glimmer of hope on a far away hill? Read on, dear reader, as readers are often wont to do.

Watchlist

Despite my poor Gameweek 1 returns, I still have confidence in my squad. That said, transfer strategy matters and mine will not be driven by past performance or the money chase.

Sure, Alli’s imminent drop helped me decide on a change, but there are other factors at work here. Between the 45-minute performance at Goodison, the Europa League snub and Gareth Bale’s return. I’ll gladly be called a hypocrite under those circumstances. This move just makes sense.

Gameweek 1 also revealed some value and interesting prospects at midfield. As I watched the games, I took note of some key players and threw them on the old Watchlist. The move is not a knee jerk if you already have targets in mind.

Right now, my Watchlist consists of 35 players who showed something in Gameweek 1. A big pool, but the names will drop off. 

My hope is that the Watchlist serves as a baseline for a strategy projecting transfers out through the end of the year. When I bring in players, I want it based on form, fixtures and value, in that order, and not due to my whims.

More likely, this becomes a document of my terrible lack of knowledge.

Let’s take a look at my top five prospects based on their future appeal. If you want to be obviously smart about it, then you should probably use your transfer to swap in KDB, Bruno, Martial or Rashford. Or take a lark with me!

James Rodríguez

This is the exact type of move that feels knee jerk, trendy, flavor of the month, because really, isn’t that just the entire career of Hamez? 

Quality player for certain, and he showed flashes of it against Spurs. There was an adjacent, threatening look about him all game, like a bully eyeing some dweeb’s lunch money who, in turn, is eyeing the money of some yet dweebier kid.

Given that I just said form is king when it comes to transfers, I can’t lean on that with James. Those fixtures, tho.

That’s primarily why he replaces Alli. A half a mil cheaper to boot, which gives me some flexibility with future transfers. Ultimately, this could blow up and he may be out with the wildcard, but I’ll give him the four weeks ‘til then to nab that lunch money.

Daniel Podence

As I weighed my options on the Alli swap, I only wish I had the guts to move to Podence. He ended Project Restart in good form and chipped in an assist in Gameweek 1.

Looks as though he’s nailed on a wing opposite of Neto, and I don’t think Nuno Espírito Santo likes to tinker. Now that they have been relieved of Cup and European duties, they’ll have full focus on the league, which could help them challenge for a top six finish again.

I see myself investing heavily in Wolves in the near future. In case you care, Marçal and obviously Raúl Jiménez are also targets.

Tariq Lamptey

Here’s a punt. After watching the Blues breeze by Brighton, I still remain interested in a couple Seagulls. Most notably, Lamptey looked as if he could.

My concern is that the marauding attacks were crimes of passion, that he was merely angling at the eye of team who jilted him.

I see him as a wildcard swap in, but he may also fall off the Watchlist faster than Adam Lallana jumps on the physio table. Oh, it’s unfortunate, folks!

Miguel Almirón

Not really interested in doubling up on the Newcastle attack. But if I didn’t have Wilson and I needed to save a million or two, I’d consider a representative from this midfield group.

Make me choose who will come out on top at the end of the season and I’ll go with Miguel Almirón. Part of the reason he wasn’t in my lineup is a belief in Wilson, but uncertainty of his spot in the starting XI.

That said, I think anyone of Saint-Maximin, Fraser or Almirón could be a worthwhile investment. Let time sort out who will be in Steve the Bruce’s favor.

My hope is a drop in ASM owners and a tick up in form makes him a cut-price pickup, but he also looks great on the field, just not as a FPL asset. I see Jeff Hendrick presumably being swooped up by newbies, which may keep the others from becoming overvalued too early. 

Ainsley Maitland-Niles 

Or Héctor Bellerín. While I’d prefer to give this spot to Reece Hamez, it’s still unclear to me what Gaffer Frank’s ideal backline looks like. 

Meanwhile, in the Neverwhere of Gunnertown, Ainsley and Bellerín look to be the guys, assuming the transfers don’t blow that up. They might well.

However, exercise caution with Arsenal players. According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings, they have the worst fixtures over the first 8 gameweeks. Also, Arsenal sucks. 

Shitlist

In this section, I call out one player I expect to ship out in the next couple weeks. This week, that player is…

Rob Holding

I should be grateful for the points and, as of current writing, it looks as though he may live to play another gameweek it looks as though Rob Holding may shuffle out with the latest injury report. So much depends on that red wheelbarrow, David Luiz. 

Next: Tears in my beers, it’s the Gameweek 2 results!