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Gameweek 3: Past Performance, Future Results

Who knew it was possible to deep throat a Premier League game ball?

Last weekend, West Brom, showing that they are distinguished professionals, spent Saturday getting plowed by the new-look Evertonian attack. Coach got a red card and they let up five goals but took it like champs, they did. Meanwhile Spurs flexed on poor Southampton in a way that surely gave Ralph flashbacks to their 9-0 drubbing last season. The horror, the horror.

Predictably, managers flooded their teams with the likes of James, Son, Dominic, Kane and Richarlison. I’m not saying that’s a mistake, but if you are bringing an Everton or Spurs player in Gameweek 3, understand this: you are already behind. 

My goal each week is a modest one. Just beat then average, preferably with a score of 60 points or higher.

Easier said than done, but mission accomplished this last week thanks to midfield heroics. Harvey Barnes and Sadio Mané recovered well after disappointing season debuts. Last week’s transfer in of James looks prescient in hindsight but it was simple calculus. Alli had to go.

Indeed, while the rest of Spurs attack impressed Bamidele was nowhere to be found. Clearly, bringing him into the team in the first place was a decision under the influence of too much All or Nothing. Toothbrushing: how does it work?

Now I find myself pondering hits to relieve myself of An underperforming Aubameyang or Martial. What do I do?

A wildcard is already long past an option for me this week. When I do play the wildcard, it begins the minute the first game of the week is played. The value of my team isn’t where it would normally be, but I sense my tides are turning.

This requires two smart transfers and ultimately, Martial and Aubameyang must stay. They have more to prove. But as I looked at the squad, two weak links stood out: Josh Onomah and Che Adams.

I’ll spare you the suspense, Onomah out in favor of Daniel Podence. Not only is he already in good form, but the fixtures are in his favor and he looks much like James prior to last week, poised for a big haul.

Meanwhile Onomah looks set for a price drop, and does not look like a Premier League player, and may lose his spot to Decordova-Reid. So we take that punt behind the barn (cottage?) and put it out of its misery.

Anywho, that’s the move my situation required. If I had all the options in the world, here are some other players I would consider.

Forwards

The point of this blog is not to be obvious. You should probably just get either DCL or jump on the Kane bandwagon. I shouldn’t need to tell you this, it’s the smart long-term move although don’t be surprised if their immediate points haul doesn’t match last week’s bounty.

If you aim not to chase but to lead, consider these two options.

RAÚL Jiménez (£8.5)

Martial still owes me points. I sat the motherfucker on the bench for a gameweek and like a bookie coming to collect, I don’t care if we have to break his knees, we’re gonna need to collect.

This is emotional decision making which is exactly what I planned on avoiding this year, but it prevents me from bringing in the player I think may have the biggest haul of the week. So I settle for his gnarly little partner Podrick Payne who, if he could have just got on target, might have pulled off a hat trick against City. Whip it out, boyo.

Big Raúl has already scored two in two, and as I mentioned earlier the Wolves face some lightweights in the next eight weeks. What’s not to like?

Aleksander Mitrović (£6.0)

Exempting a week one guest role, Mitrović will play every minute he’s healthy. Yet many owners are already retreating from him given cut price options or potential budget blockbusters. He’s nailed on, in good form, and next to Wolves, Fulham have the some of the softest fixtures possible. Soft like baby thighs.

If you’re one of the 21 percent of owners who have him, keep him for at least two more weeks. He may be a wildcard recruit for me.

Neal Maupay (£6.5)

Mitrović and Jiménez are both owned by around 20 percent of teams, so this is your punt for Gameweek 4. Don’t bring him in this week, but consider him next week. Brighton has looked capable of scoring regularly, and Maupay has passed the eye test in his first two games.

Tariq Lamptey’s aggressive approach and a run of decent fixtures will keep Maupay on the Watchlist, although he lives in that border of not-budget-enough and potentially unreliable to give me pause. Be braver than me, dear friend.

Midfielders

Podence was not my top midfield target if I’m honest. Again, don’t be shy about bringing in the obvious ones. Sonny and Kevin will not disappoint.

However, if you’re like me and those moves don’t fit your larger strategy at the moment consider these humbuckers.

Raheem Sterling (£11.5)

Ok, obviously all these picks can’t really be called punts. Here’s a guy who has scored 200 points for each of the last three seasons. But given Kevin’s influence and guaranteed starts, Sterling selection is minuscule and screams differential, seeing as he’s only in around 5 percent of teams.

What?

His numbers will ebb and flow a little more drastically than the Belgian’s, but I think the highs will be higher. He’ll be a consideration for the wildcard, but he’s also presumably a good selection now, since Pep may not have the the resources at hand for his normal tinkering. 

Or maybe he doesn’t start when you need him most. Risky in some ways, but almost certainly guaranteed to pay if you play your cards right.

Mateusz Klich (£5.6)

A little more courage with Leeds assets could have made a world of difference in my squad. While many have opted for Harrison, my money is on Heldér Costa’s creative threat and Klich on penalties, which probably makes the Polish Thunder the most attractive asset in attack.

Rodrigo looks half-baked and will clearly need time to adjust. Bodes well for Bamford owners, but Leeds is still a wait-and-watch situation for me. My money is on these value assets being second only to Podence. Let’s see if I eat my words.

My only hope is the points don’t evaporate by the time I get around to pulling him into the team.

Dwight McNeil (£6.0)

Manchester United looked flat against Crystal Palace in the first half. The attack sputtered in general, although Bruno Fernandes showed signs of life. Martial looked invisible and disinterested.

On the opposite side, Zaha looks like he’s trying to audition for any buyer who might even briefly consider him. But he’s fooled me before and I think that bandwagon will crash, so no Zaha for me.

Enter: Dwight McNeil.

When eyeing a player like Dwight “Legs” McNeil, one must focus on his growth over the last few seasons And the changing assets around him. The 2019/2020 proved a breakout one for the 20-year old, but no one will accuse Burnley of being a free-flowing attacking offense any time soon.

McNeil is probably a short term wild-ass guess, but a good one that seems to be supported by a good finisher in Chris Wood, who himself might be considered equal to Maupay in his questionable upside.

Legs has already netted an assist, and with the next best fixtures after Fulham and Leeds, something to consider. Man ain’t a target of bigger clubs for nothing.

Next: Somebody give me drugs and alcohol, this week might be fucked.

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Results

Gameweek 1: Lessons Learned

Is there anything more humbling than spending time writing out your thoughts only to realize how completely wrong your thinking turned out?

In games of improvisation, a wise man once reminded us that much like the bathroom of the Starship Enterprise, the points do not exist. This is my mantra. The points do not exist. The moment you start chasing points in this damn game we know as Fantasy Premier League, you are lost. Form is king, but past performance does not guarantee future results. Better to assume that they do not exist. 

The points do not exist.

In case you are not impressed with my prose, here is the crux of my commentary this week:

  1. No transfers and no chasing. All my players start in their respective squads (Dele Alli, I’m watching you). The only time I intend to transfer players out is if they don’t play or they average less than four points a game over a four-week span.
  2. Extracting value from the mid-to-low table teams through a proactive transfer strategy requires watching football. On the other hand, value gained from Liverpool, Chelsea, The Manchesters and Spurs requires common sense, willpower and blood magic. I suppose you could include Arsenal in that group, but please remind yourself always that Arsenal sucks. 
  3. Leeds sure is fun to watch. This will be a much different story than Norwich’s return to the top flight last year. Klich, Costa or Harrison? You tell me in the comments. I think I’m talking to myself here.
  4. I was pretty stoned Friday night, so apparently I never actually brought Peacock-Farrell into the squad, which is likely the reason for the bad results. Darn you, Jed Steer!

Yep, that’s it. The rest of the article attempts to explain away a poor finish in the first week. If you read any further, you must really like me. That’s sweet, I like you, too.

Results

All that matters is results. 3,450,230 people had better results than me.

An ignominious starting point, but at least I can take solace that more than 2 million other people did worse. Take glee in the misfortune of others.

The most obvious mistake this week stems from my captain selection, which turned out a spectacular failure that went about as poorly as it possible could. And that, friends, may be the most entertaining reason to return week after week and read my rantings: my capacity for showing off how little I understand this game. 

Mané goals will come, but it’s obvious here that Salah was the safe choice. Safe is good, but the correct choice this week may not mean the correct choice next week. I’m still banking on the differential potential of Mané, which drove the decision to go this route in the first place. 

The next steps require discipline. Basically. the things I wrote in the preview are working in reverse. The Mané sell off begins. My goal is to hold until Gameweek 4. Aubamayang probably takes the armband next week for the clash with West Ham. I need to think my captaincy strategy through a little deeper. More to come.

Differentials

Rather than going with the attacker differential, as far as Livepool is concerned, the defender differential seems the move. Nobody will question taking Trent, but stretched across the length of the season, how big will the difference in value be between him, Virgil van Dijk and Andrew Robertson?

By the end of 2019/2020, there was approximately a 40 point difference between van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold, with a half million difference in starting price. This year, van Dijk starts £1m cheaper, and in retrospect I admit that would have been a less risky move than picking Mané over Salah. 

The idea of the differential is not new. Picking the right players is only half the battle. Sometimes you also have to find the diamonds among the zirconia. 

For the purposes of this strategy, I see a differential player as one who has a Team Selected by % that is at least 20 percentage points lower than either a) the highest selected player in that position category, or b) a teammate who plays in the same position or in an attacking capacity. I gauge this by the percentage prior to the end of the transfer window for that gameweek.

Mané met this criteria. Yikes, that was a terrible choice for Gameweek 1, but he did muster five shots which gives me hope. Che Adams also fit this differential description. While Che didn’t pan out in Gameweek 1, he was also very active in the attack and looks like a solid partner for Danny Ings. For both, I expect results soon given some of the emerging budget attacking alternatives.

Callum Wilson, on the other hand, netted a goal and the Newcastle attack looks healthy. Encouraged by the toils of Allan Saint-Maximin, Jonjo Shelvey, Jeff Hendrick and Miguel Almiron, the hope is Wilson continues to poach with aplomb.

Friendly fixtures in the first gameweeks feel reassuring, but the real challenge comes with finding the target during the hairy match ups. One goal against either Tottenham, Burnley or Manchester United might solidify his position in the squad for weeks to come.

Value

This year, I refuse to chase price changes. I reserve the right to change my mind about that, since the money chase is one of my favorite aspects of the game. My belief is that it makes a difference to have that extra little salary cap space to be able to squeeze a more nailed-on and in-form player into the team.

The Value (Season) filter informed some of my preseason thinking. Using this statistic as well as Value (Form) is a reminder that value does not equal “cheap.” After one gameweek, Salah is the fourth best value among midfielders, surpassed only by Arsenal-debutante Willian and the budget-priced Hendrick and Jorginho.

Everyone hopes they get their money’s worth, and that’s the goal here.

The problem with these statistics is that they can be misleading. For example, be wary of Patrick Bamford. His stock has soared by opening his account serving as a target man in a Leeds attack that looks like it may be able to score as many goals as it ships. However, his place is far from guaranteed despite Rodrigo’s rough beginnings.

After one week, my most valuable players are Justin James and Callum Wilson. Hmm.

Next: Who Watches the Watchlist?