Is there anything more humbling than spending time writing out your thoughts only to realize how completely wrong your thinking turned out?
In games of improvisation, a wise man once reminded us that much like the bathroom of the Starship Enterprise, the points do not exist. This is my mantra. The points do not exist. The moment you start chasing points in this damn game we know as Fantasy Premier League, you are lost. Form is king, but past performance does not guarantee future results. Better to assume that they do not exist.
The points do not exist.
In case you are not impressed with my prose, here is the crux of my commentary this week:
- No transfers and no chasing. All my players start in their respective squads (Dele Alli, I’m watching you). The only time I intend to transfer players out is if they don’t play or they average less than four points a game over a four-week span.
- Extracting value from the mid-to-low table teams through a proactive transfer strategy requires watching football. On the other hand, value gained from Liverpool, Chelsea, The Manchesters and Spurs requires common sense, willpower and blood magic. I suppose you could include Arsenal in that group, but please remind yourself always that Arsenal sucks.
- Leeds sure is fun to watch. This will be a much different story than Norwich’s return to the top flight last year. Klich, Costa or Harrison? You tell me in the comments. I think I’m talking to myself here.
- I was pretty stoned Friday night, so apparently I never actually brought Peacock-Farrell into the squad, which is likely the reason for the bad results. Darn you, Jed Steer!
Yep, that’s it. The rest of the article attempts to explain away a poor finish in the first week. If you read any further, you must really like me. That’s sweet, I like you, too.
Results
All that matters is results. 3,450,230 people had better results than me.
An ignominious starting point, but at least I can take solace that more than 2 million other people did worse. Take glee in the misfortune of others.
The most obvious mistake this week stems from my captain selection, which turned out a spectacular failure that went about as poorly as it possible could. And that, friends, may be the most entertaining reason to return week after week and read my rantings: my capacity for showing off how little I understand this game.
Mané goals will come, but it’s obvious here that Salah was the safe choice. Safe is good, but the correct choice this week may not mean the correct choice next week. I’m still banking on the differential potential of Mané, which drove the decision to go this route in the first place.
The next steps require discipline. Basically. the things I wrote in the preview are working in reverse. The Mané sell off begins. My goal is to hold until Gameweek 4. Aubamayang probably takes the armband next week for the clash with West Ham. I need to think my captaincy strategy through a little deeper. More to come.
Differentials
Rather than going with the attacker differential, as far as Livepool is concerned, the defender differential seems the move. Nobody will question taking Trent, but stretched across the length of the season, how big will the difference in value be between him, Virgil van Dijk and Andrew Robertson?
By the end of 2019/2020, there was approximately a 40 point difference between van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold, with a half million difference in starting price. This year, van Dijk starts £1m cheaper, and in retrospect I admit that would have been a less risky move than picking Mané over Salah.
The idea of the differential is not new. Picking the right players is only half the battle. Sometimes you also have to find the diamonds among the zirconia.
For the purposes of this strategy, I see a differential player as one who has a Team Selected by % that is at least 20 percentage points lower than either a) the highest selected player in that position category, or b) a teammate who plays in the same position or in an attacking capacity. I gauge this by the percentage prior to the end of the transfer window for that gameweek.
Mané met this criteria. Yikes, that was a terrible choice for Gameweek 1, but he did muster five shots which gives me hope. Che Adams also fit this differential description. While Che didn’t pan out in Gameweek 1, he was also very active in the attack and looks like a solid partner for Danny Ings. For both, I expect results soon given some of the emerging budget attacking alternatives.
Callum Wilson, on the other hand, netted a goal and the Newcastle attack looks healthy. Encouraged by the toils of Allan Saint-Maximin, Jonjo Shelvey, Jeff Hendrick and Miguel Almiron, the hope is Wilson continues to poach with aplomb.
Friendly fixtures in the first gameweeks feel reassuring, but the real challenge comes with finding the target during the hairy match ups. One goal against either Tottenham, Burnley or Manchester United might solidify his position in the squad for weeks to come.
Value
This year, I refuse to chase price changes. I reserve the right to change my mind about that, since the money chase is one of my favorite aspects of the game. My belief is that it makes a difference to have that extra little salary cap space to be able to squeeze a more nailed-on and in-form player into the team.
The Value (Season) filter informed some of my preseason thinking. Using this statistic as well as Value (Form) is a reminder that value does not equal “cheap.” After one gameweek, Salah is the fourth best value among midfielders, surpassed only by Arsenal-debutante Willian and the budget-priced Hendrick and Jorginho.
Everyone hopes they get their money’s worth, and that’s the goal here.
The problem with these statistics is that they can be misleading. For example, be wary of Patrick Bamford. His stock has soared by opening his account serving as a target man in a Leeds attack that looks like it may be able to score as many goals as it ships. However, his place is far from guaranteed despite Rodrigo’s rough beginnings.
After one week, my most valuable players are Justin James and Callum Wilson. Hmm.
Next: Who Watches the Watchlist?