Categories
Lineup

Gameweek 4: Unchartered Territory

Folks, we’ve entered into a strange land, where the daisies grown upside down from the roof of your soul. This text is a 30 minute mishmash of minutia that crossed my mind in the eve of the gameweek.

The President has gonorrhea.

Wait, nope read that headline wrong. This is why you’re supposed to read the whole article. It was COVID all along. You know who else got VID’d?

Sadio fucking Mané.

Luckily, I wildcarded early in the week, and in a fit of sleeplessness, I decided to check the Guardian sports section. Been trying to figure out a lineup for the night that is dark and full of terrors. Here’s where we landed.

I’ll try to live tweet my reactions to this @muricafc.

Also, let’s have a moment of silence for these guys. Alas, poor Podence, we didn’t know you well. Prediction of the week: I bring him back after the international break.

Next: All my players have COVID and I am scared for my life.

Categories
Results Watchlist

Gameweek 3: Past Performance, Future Results

Who knew it was possible to deep throat a Premier League game ball?

Last weekend, West Brom, showing that they are distinguished professionals, spent Saturday getting plowed by the new-look Evertonian attack. Coach got a red card and they let up five goals but took it like champs, they did. Meanwhile Spurs flexed on poor Southampton in a way that surely gave Ralph flashbacks to their 9-0 drubbing last season. The horror, the horror.

Predictably, managers flooded their teams with the likes of James, Son, Dominic, Kane and Richarlison. I’m not saying that’s a mistake, but if you are bringing an Everton or Spurs player in Gameweek 3, understand this: you are already behind. 

My goal each week is a modest one. Just beat then average, preferably with a score of 60 points or higher.

Easier said than done, but mission accomplished this last week thanks to midfield heroics. Harvey Barnes and Sadio Mané recovered well after disappointing season debuts. Last week’s transfer in of James looks prescient in hindsight but it was simple calculus. Alli had to go.

Indeed, while the rest of Spurs attack impressed Bamidele was nowhere to be found. Clearly, bringing him into the team in the first place was a decision under the influence of too much All or Nothing. Toothbrushing: how does it work?

Now I find myself pondering hits to relieve myself of An underperforming Aubameyang or Martial. What do I do?

A wildcard is already long past an option for me this week. When I do play the wildcard, it begins the minute the first game of the week is played. The value of my team isn’t where it would normally be, but I sense my tides are turning.

This requires two smart transfers and ultimately, Martial and Aubameyang must stay. They have more to prove. But as I looked at the squad, two weak links stood out: Josh Onomah and Che Adams.

I’ll spare you the suspense, Onomah out in favor of Daniel Podence. Not only is he already in good form, but the fixtures are in his favor and he looks much like James prior to last week, poised for a big haul.

Meanwhile Onomah looks set for a price drop, and does not look like a Premier League player, and may lose his spot to Decordova-Reid. So we take that punt behind the barn (cottage?) and put it out of its misery.

Anywho, that’s the move my situation required. If I had all the options in the world, here are some other players I would consider.

Forwards

The point of this blog is not to be obvious. You should probably just get either DCL or jump on the Kane bandwagon. I shouldn’t need to tell you this, it’s the smart long-term move although don’t be surprised if their immediate points haul doesn’t match last week’s bounty.

If you aim not to chase but to lead, consider these two options.

RAÚL Jiménez (£8.5)

Martial still owes me points. I sat the motherfucker on the bench for a gameweek and like a bookie coming to collect, I don’t care if we have to break his knees, we’re gonna need to collect.

This is emotional decision making which is exactly what I planned on avoiding this year, but it prevents me from bringing in the player I think may have the biggest haul of the week. So I settle for his gnarly little partner Podrick Payne who, if he could have just got on target, might have pulled off a hat trick against City. Whip it out, boyo.

Big Raúl has already scored two in two, and as I mentioned earlier the Wolves face some lightweights in the next eight weeks. What’s not to like?

Aleksander Mitrović (£6.0)

Exempting a week one guest role, Mitrović will play every minute he’s healthy. Yet many owners are already retreating from him given cut price options or potential budget blockbusters. He’s nailed on, in good form, and next to Wolves, Fulham have the some of the softest fixtures possible. Soft like baby thighs.

If you’re one of the 21 percent of owners who have him, keep him for at least two more weeks. He may be a wildcard recruit for me.

Neal Maupay (£6.5)

Mitrović and Jiménez are both owned by around 20 percent of teams, so this is your punt for Gameweek 4. Don’t bring him in this week, but consider him next week. Brighton has looked capable of scoring regularly, and Maupay has passed the eye test in his first two games.

Tariq Lamptey’s aggressive approach and a run of decent fixtures will keep Maupay on the Watchlist, although he lives in that border of not-budget-enough and potentially unreliable to give me pause. Be braver than me, dear friend.

Midfielders

Podence was not my top midfield target if I’m honest. Again, don’t be shy about bringing in the obvious ones. Sonny and Kevin will not disappoint.

However, if you’re like me and those moves don’t fit your larger strategy at the moment consider these humbuckers.

Raheem Sterling (£11.5)

Ok, obviously all these picks can’t really be called punts. Here’s a guy who has scored 200 points for each of the last three seasons. But given Kevin’s influence and guaranteed starts, Sterling selection is minuscule and screams differential, seeing as he’s only in around 5 percent of teams.

What?

His numbers will ebb and flow a little more drastically than the Belgian’s, but I think the highs will be higher. He’ll be a consideration for the wildcard, but he’s also presumably a good selection now, since Pep may not have the the resources at hand for his normal tinkering. 

Or maybe he doesn’t start when you need him most. Risky in some ways, but almost certainly guaranteed to pay if you play your cards right.

Mateusz Klich (£5.6)

A little more courage with Leeds assets could have made a world of difference in my squad. While many have opted for Harrison, my money is on Heldér Costa’s creative threat and Klich on penalties, which probably makes the Polish Thunder the most attractive asset in attack.

Rodrigo looks half-baked and will clearly need time to adjust. Bodes well for Bamford owners, but Leeds is still a wait-and-watch situation for me. My money is on these value assets being second only to Podence. Let’s see if I eat my words.

My only hope is the points don’t evaporate by the time I get around to pulling him into the team.

Dwight McNeil (£6.0)

Manchester United looked flat against Crystal Palace in the first half. The attack sputtered in general, although Bruno Fernandes showed signs of life. Martial looked invisible and disinterested.

On the opposite side, Zaha looks like he’s trying to audition for any buyer who might even briefly consider him. But he’s fooled me before and I think that bandwagon will crash, so no Zaha for me.

Enter: Dwight McNeil.

When eyeing a player like Dwight “Legs” McNeil, one must focus on his growth over the last few seasons And the changing assets around him. The 2019/2020 proved a breakout one for the 20-year old, but no one will accuse Burnley of being a free-flowing attacking offense any time soon.

McNeil is probably a short term wild-ass guess, but a good one that seems to be supported by a good finisher in Chris Wood, who himself might be considered equal to Maupay in his questionable upside.

Legs has already netted an assist, and with the next best fixtures after Fulham and Leeds, something to consider. Man ain’t a target of bigger clubs for nothing.

Next: Somebody give me drugs and alcohol, this week might be fucked.

Categories
Watchlist

Gameweek 2: Who Watches the Watchlist?

I’m a liar. I’m a big, fat, smelly liar with an ugly face and a big butt and my butt smells and I like to kiss my own butt.

I lied when I said that I would roll my transfer this week. With the Gareth Bale scuttlebutt becoming headline news, the time came to deal with Dele Alli earlier than expected. Sure, I could have done a wait-and-see but I have no patience to find out the impact of this and I planned on moving him anyway.

Who came in? Who might come in next? Who shines as a glimmer of hope on a far away hill? Read on, dear reader, as readers are often wont to do.

Watchlist

Despite my poor Gameweek 1 returns, I still have confidence in my squad. That said, transfer strategy matters and mine will not be driven by past performance or the money chase.

Sure, Alli’s imminent drop helped me decide on a change, but there are other factors at work here. Between the 45-minute performance at Goodison, the Europa League snub and Gareth Bale’s return. I’ll gladly be called a hypocrite under those circumstances. This move just makes sense.

Gameweek 1 also revealed some value and interesting prospects at midfield. As I watched the games, I took note of some key players and threw them on the old Watchlist. The move is not a knee jerk if you already have targets in mind.

Right now, my Watchlist consists of 35 players who showed something in Gameweek 1. A big pool, but the names will drop off. 

My hope is that the Watchlist serves as a baseline for a strategy projecting transfers out through the end of the year. When I bring in players, I want it based on form, fixtures and value, in that order, and not due to my whims.

More likely, this becomes a document of my terrible lack of knowledge.

Let’s take a look at my top five prospects based on their future appeal. If you want to be obviously smart about it, then you should probably use your transfer to swap in KDB, Bruno, Martial or Rashford. Or take a lark with me!

James Rodríguez

This is the exact type of move that feels knee jerk, trendy, flavor of the month, because really, isn’t that just the entire career of Hamez? 

Quality player for certain, and he showed flashes of it against Spurs. There was an adjacent, threatening look about him all game, like a bully eyeing some dweeb’s lunch money who, in turn, is eyeing the money of some yet dweebier kid.

Given that I just said form is king when it comes to transfers, I can’t lean on that with James. Those fixtures, tho.

That’s primarily why he replaces Alli. A half a mil cheaper to boot, which gives me some flexibility with future transfers. Ultimately, this could blow up and he may be out with the wildcard, but I’ll give him the four weeks ‘til then to nab that lunch money.

Daniel Podence

As I weighed my options on the Alli swap, I only wish I had the guts to move to Podence. He ended Project Restart in good form and chipped in an assist in Gameweek 1.

Looks as though he’s nailed on a wing opposite of Neto, and I don’t think Nuno Espírito Santo likes to tinker. Now that they have been relieved of Cup and European duties, they’ll have full focus on the league, which could help them challenge for a top six finish again.

I see myself investing heavily in Wolves in the near future. In case you care, Marçal and obviously Raúl Jiménez are also targets.

Tariq Lamptey

Here’s a punt. After watching the Blues breeze by Brighton, I still remain interested in a couple Seagulls. Most notably, Lamptey looked as if he could.

My concern is that the marauding attacks were crimes of passion, that he was merely angling at the eye of team who jilted him.

I see him as a wildcard swap in, but he may also fall off the Watchlist faster than Adam Lallana jumps on the physio table. Oh, it’s unfortunate, folks!

Miguel Almirón

Not really interested in doubling up on the Newcastle attack. But if I didn’t have Wilson and I needed to save a million or two, I’d consider a representative from this midfield group.

Make me choose who will come out on top at the end of the season and I’ll go with Miguel Almirón. Part of the reason he wasn’t in my lineup is a belief in Wilson, but uncertainty of his spot in the starting XI.

That said, I think anyone of Saint-Maximin, Fraser or Almirón could be a worthwhile investment. Let time sort out who will be in Steve the Bruce’s favor.

My hope is a drop in ASM owners and a tick up in form makes him a cut-price pickup, but he also looks great on the field, just not as a FPL asset. I see Jeff Hendrick presumably being swooped up by newbies, which may keep the others from becoming overvalued too early. 

Ainsley Maitland-Niles 

Or Héctor Bellerín. While I’d prefer to give this spot to Reece Hamez, it’s still unclear to me what Gaffer Frank’s ideal backline looks like. 

Meanwhile, in the Neverwhere of Gunnertown, Ainsley and Bellerín look to be the guys, assuming the transfers don’t blow that up. They might well.

However, exercise caution with Arsenal players. According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings, they have the worst fixtures over the first 8 gameweeks. Also, Arsenal sucks. 

Shitlist

In this section, I call out one player I expect to ship out in the next couple weeks. This week, that player is…

Rob Holding

I should be grateful for the points and, as of current writing, it looks as though he may live to play another gameweek it looks as though Rob Holding may shuffle out with the latest injury report. So much depends on that red wheelbarrow, David Luiz. 

Next: Tears in my beers, it’s the Gameweek 2 results!

Categories
Results

Gameweek 1: Lessons Learned

Is there anything more humbling than spending time writing out your thoughts only to realize how completely wrong your thinking turned out?

In games of improvisation, a wise man once reminded us that much like the bathroom of the Starship Enterprise, the points do not exist. This is my mantra. The points do not exist. The moment you start chasing points in this damn game we know as Fantasy Premier League, you are lost. Form is king, but past performance does not guarantee future results. Better to assume that they do not exist. 

The points do not exist.

In case you are not impressed with my prose, here is the crux of my commentary this week:

  1. No transfers and no chasing. All my players start in their respective squads (Dele Alli, I’m watching you). The only time I intend to transfer players out is if they don’t play or they average less than four points a game over a four-week span.
  2. Extracting value from the mid-to-low table teams through a proactive transfer strategy requires watching football. On the other hand, value gained from Liverpool, Chelsea, The Manchesters and Spurs requires common sense, willpower and blood magic. I suppose you could include Arsenal in that group, but please remind yourself always that Arsenal sucks. 
  3. Leeds sure is fun to watch. This will be a much different story than Norwich’s return to the top flight last year. Klich, Costa or Harrison? You tell me in the comments. I think I’m talking to myself here.
  4. I was pretty stoned Friday night, so apparently I never actually brought Peacock-Farrell into the squad, which is likely the reason for the bad results. Darn you, Jed Steer!

Yep, that’s it. The rest of the article attempts to explain away a poor finish in the first week. If you read any further, you must really like me. That’s sweet, I like you, too.

Results

All that matters is results. 3,450,230 people had better results than me.

An ignominious starting point, but at least I can take solace that more than 2 million other people did worse. Take glee in the misfortune of others.

The most obvious mistake this week stems from my captain selection, which turned out a spectacular failure that went about as poorly as it possible could. And that, friends, may be the most entertaining reason to return week after week and read my rantings: my capacity for showing off how little I understand this game. 

Mané goals will come, but it’s obvious here that Salah was the safe choice. Safe is good, but the correct choice this week may not mean the correct choice next week. I’m still banking on the differential potential of Mané, which drove the decision to go this route in the first place. 

The next steps require discipline. Basically. the things I wrote in the preview are working in reverse. The Mané sell off begins. My goal is to hold until Gameweek 4. Aubamayang probably takes the armband next week for the clash with West Ham. I need to think my captaincy strategy through a little deeper. More to come.

Differentials

Rather than going with the attacker differential, as far as Livepool is concerned, the defender differential seems the move. Nobody will question taking Trent, but stretched across the length of the season, how big will the difference in value be between him, Virgil van Dijk and Andrew Robertson?

By the end of 2019/2020, there was approximately a 40 point difference between van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold, with a half million difference in starting price. This year, van Dijk starts £1m cheaper, and in retrospect I admit that would have been a less risky move than picking Mané over Salah. 

The idea of the differential is not new. Picking the right players is only half the battle. Sometimes you also have to find the diamonds among the zirconia. 

For the purposes of this strategy, I see a differential player as one who has a Team Selected by % that is at least 20 percentage points lower than either a) the highest selected player in that position category, or b) a teammate who plays in the same position or in an attacking capacity. I gauge this by the percentage prior to the end of the transfer window for that gameweek.

Mané met this criteria. Yikes, that was a terrible choice for Gameweek 1, but he did muster five shots which gives me hope. Che Adams also fit this differential description. While Che didn’t pan out in Gameweek 1, he was also very active in the attack and looks like a solid partner for Danny Ings. For both, I expect results soon given some of the emerging budget attacking alternatives.

Callum Wilson, on the other hand, netted a goal and the Newcastle attack looks healthy. Encouraged by the toils of Allan Saint-Maximin, Jonjo Shelvey, Jeff Hendrick and Miguel Almiron, the hope is Wilson continues to poach with aplomb.

Friendly fixtures in the first gameweeks feel reassuring, but the real challenge comes with finding the target during the hairy match ups. One goal against either Tottenham, Burnley or Manchester United might solidify his position in the squad for weeks to come.

Value

This year, I refuse to chase price changes. I reserve the right to change my mind about that, since the money chase is one of my favorite aspects of the game. My belief is that it makes a difference to have that extra little salary cap space to be able to squeeze a more nailed-on and in-form player into the team.

The Value (Season) filter informed some of my preseason thinking. Using this statistic as well as Value (Form) is a reminder that value does not equal “cheap.” After one gameweek, Salah is the fourth best value among midfielders, surpassed only by Arsenal-debutante Willian and the budget-priced Hendrick and Jorginho.

Everyone hopes they get their money’s worth, and that’s the goal here.

The problem with these statistics is that they can be misleading. For example, be wary of Patrick Bamford. His stock has soared by opening his account serving as a target man in a Leeds attack that looks like it may be able to score as many goals as it ships. However, his place is far from guaranteed despite Rodrigo’s rough beginnings.

After one week, my most valuable players are Justin James and Callum Wilson. Hmm.

Next: Who Watches the Watchlist?

 

Categories
Lineup

Gameweek 1: Onomah, I’ve Been Huggin’ the Block

This year’s theory. It matters not who you bring in, but who you put out. Ostensibly, it could be true in Wembly. Then again, I could end up tumblin’ down the table. Yes, I’m writing about Gameweek One and yes, the typos are intentionally. That’s my writing style.

In life and in play, conservatism has its ups and downs. Stay scared and cling to the known or venture into the unknown? Alls I’m talking about is the strategy for my Fantasy Premier League team. If you read any further, just know that brazen words end up dusting the sun through the feathered sky. 

Do you understand these words? It’s Gameweek 1, bitches.

At the beginning of every season, I spend the last days before the first game thinking about the devils in my lineup. Who burned me in the past?

Bitterness drives me. I refuse to draft Kane in the first week because of ancient slow starts. Salah, not this year, after he lagged behind Mane the week I brought him in, though I already know this means inevitably figuring out how to rearrange the missing pieces once favor changes. Hold grudges like a brick to be chucked through a window to put terror in the hearts of wimps.

Yes, if you are a living breathing person with a willingness to hear, my prime targets also hold history. Aubamayang came in very early in his tenure-one year and blessed the points with a streak. Trent Alexander-Arnold. No further words required.

This trend ends this year, though. Forge out into the wilds, friendo. 

Goalkeepers

Aaron Ramsdale (£5.0)

Have no doubt, my strategy is two fold. First, the year of differential. At the beginning of this, Alex McCarthy. Gradually, his stock climbed to the point that he’s the top picked in his position, which means Plan B.

Ramsdale looks forward to light fixtures, a strong demonstration from his performance despite protecting a piss poor defense last season and this year, still a reasonable price. Which brings me to the second of the folds: value.

Spending more to spend less I’m hoping. Ramsdale stays all season if I can help it. He will finish the season in the top five at the position, unless injured. That’s always the rub of course. If that’s the case, he’ll be dropped for a cheaper keeper. 

Bailey Peacock-Farrell (£4.0)

Is this guy secret NBC branding content embedded within the game? Surely drafting this Easter Egg will bear good tidings. Truly, only logic at work here is that if Nick Pope gets injured maybe Lord Billingsley Game-Hen somehow ends up deputizing.

Defenders

The following players are listed in order of the length of time I expect them to stick around in the team. I’ve come to the same conclusion as Fantasy Football Scout, so props for stealing my brainwaves, bro. Skip ahead or continue for some especial terrible writing.

Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5)

Why did your eyes stop here? You must enjoy jerking off to the words of other people. Don’t worry, I won’t kink shame you.

Kyle Walker-Peters (£4.5)

Seems like a starter. 

Justin James (£4.5)

Seems like a backup. Might as well let it slide for a few weeks, until the main dude comes back. Predicted future is that he is transferred out on a wildcard.

Nathan Ferguson (£4.0)

I think I would probably be bringing him in four weeks into the future. Therefore, I shall bring him in now. Time travel!

Rob Holding (£4.5)

Fun with  anagrams! Due to some boring hold, I’ve selected Rob Holding. Tune in next week for more fun with Rob Holding Anagrams.

Midfielders

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£12.0)

Go read one of the other thousands of articles and then jump into traffic.

Sadio Mane (£12.0)

Ok, strategy in effect. Two players who I rate equal. The obvious choice is Salah. There’s something about his name that feels like it should be in your team. Sah-lah. Saaaaaah-lah. Say it.

But his ownership is high, and given the same price, my thinking is this: 1) Mane scores the first game. Minor sell-off by Salah owners. 2) Mane scores and Salah scores. Larger sell-off of Salah. It’s easy to think most owners have enough willpower to hold off one gameweek, but two? Cowards. 3) Mane doesn’t score in the third game. Salah hat trick. Buyer’s remorse starts kicking in, but Mane has already raised by a few million. Wildcards start to get thrown about. 4) Aston Villa dissipates like fart in the wind. The last few teams that don’t have Salah or Mane finally give in and buy one or the other. Salah purchased while below his original value, and Salah sold above. Money muddy from Monday’s merry mashing among the mad motorways of the M62.  

Uh, the same thing could also happen in reverse. Like despite what I wrote earlier, time travel isn’t real. Oh, I don’t know shit, you silly, silly child.

Harvey Barnes (£7.0)

This is as simple as the kid being good and Leicester gots them good fixtures. I think he’s a guaranteed starter. Certainly ain’t anyone better behind him.

Dele Alli (£8.0)

“They are going to give us

very good chances to fuck them.

Very good chances to fuck them.” 

-Cam’ron

This is where the midfield gets awkward. Again the strategy of good memories. Positive results from a past season makes me lean toward Dele Alli, although the smart money is on Son. We are trying to be contrarian here, but to reference the earlier theme, the most important thing this season is who gets pushed out of the team. 

Chances are his spot will be taken by Kevin.

Josh Onomah (£5.0)

This is as simple as the kid having a chip on his shoulder. Cheap for an attacking midfielder and likely to start. Doesn’t cost too much to care, and I am willing to hold him for Fulham’s games after Arsenal. Then probably throw him to the Wolves. 

Forwards

Anthony Martial (£9.0)

I know I’ll need some players from the Manchesters and this is my United pick. Martial ended up being the cheapest player who also happened to score at least 200 points. I think he could do it again, but I think it’s more likely that he scores less, but still ends up being a good season-long value. Plus, he seems like a nice guy.

What about the blank gameweek? Into it. Every week should have a blank gameweek to keep you on your toes. This is part of that grand plan, though, Don’t plan for the next week, plan for the next four. Failing that, Timo Werner. The lack of Blues in the crew is a sign of failure and also hopefully a little strategy,

Callum Wilson (£6.5)

Now I’m just picking players that I want to see succeed. More importantly, I think Wilson will score a fair bit more than last year’s Bournemouth disappointment. The new-look midfield bears hope for me and maybe Al comes good, too.

Che Adams (£6.0)

Might be the second coming of Callum Wilson’s 18/19 form.

Next Time: A recap of my poor life decisions. Contrition, sadness and maybe, just the smallest dash of joy.